13 Keys to the White House Calculator

An interactive tool based on Allan Lichtman’s presidential prediction model.

Set each of the 13 keys below. A key is “True” (switch on) if the statement favors the incumbent party and “False” (switch off) if it disfavors them.

Calculating…

The model predicts a loss for the incumbent party if 6 or more keys are false.

What is the 13 Keys to the White House Calculator?

The “13 Keys to the White House” is a presidential election prediction system developed by American historian Allan Lichtman. Instead of focusing on polls, campaign tactics, or candidate debates, the model assesses the performance and stability of the party currently holding the presidency. This 13 keys to the white house calculator is based on the idea that presidential elections are fundamentally a referendum on the incumbent party’s governance over the previous four years.

The system comprises 13 true/false statements called “keys.” An answer of “true” always favors the incumbent party, while “false” favors the challenging party. According to Lichtman’s model, if five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the challenger is predicted to win.

The 13 Keys Formula and Explanation

The “formula” for the 13 Keys model is not a mathematical equation but a simple threshold rule. The core task is to evaluate each of the 13 statements and count the number of “false” outcomes.

Prediction Rule:

• 5 or fewer false keys: Incumbent party WINS.
• 6 or more false keys: Incumbent party LOSES.

This calculator automates the tally and provides an instant prediction based on your assessment of the keys.

The 13 Keys and Their Meaning

Key	Meaning (Statement is TRUE if…)	Category
1. Party Mandate	After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.	Political
2. Nomination Contest	There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.	Political
3. Incumbency	The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.	Political
4. Third Party	There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.	Political
5. Short-Term Economy	The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.	Performance
6. Long-Term Economy	Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.	Performance
7. Policy Change	The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.	Performance
8. Social Unrest	There is no sustained social unrest during the term.	Performance
9. Scandal	The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.	Performance
10. Foreign/Military Failure	The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.	Performance
11. Foreign/Military Success	The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.	Performance
12. Incumbent Charisma	The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.	Charisma
13. Challenger Charisma	The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.	Charisma

For more insights on political forecasting, you might find our analysis of polling accuracy useful.

Practical Examples

Example 1: 1984 Election (Reagan vs. Mondale)

In 1984, Ronald Reagan ran for re-election. The economy was strong, there was no social unrest, and Reagan was a charismatic incumbent. Only a few keys were turned against the Republicans.

• Inputs: Key 1 (Party Mandate) was false, but most others like Short-Term Economy, Incumbency, and Incumbent Charisma were true.
• Result: With only about 2-3 keys false, the model strongly predicted a Reagan victory. He won in a historic landslide.

Example 2: 2020 Election (Trump vs. Biden)

In 2020, Donald Trump was the incumbent. Several keys had turned against him by Election Day.

• Inputs: Key 1 (Party Mandate) was false due to 2018 midterm losses. Key 5 (Short-Term Economy) was false due to the COVID-19 recession. Key 8 (Social Unrest) was false due to widespread protests. In total, Lichtman counted seven false keys.
• Result: With seven false keys (more than the threshold of six), the model correctly predicted that the incumbent party would lose, and Joe Biden would win.

How to Use This 13 Keys to the White House Calculator

1. Review Each Key: Go through each of the 13 keys listed in the calculator. Each key is a statement about the incumbent party’s four-year term.
2. Set the Switch: For each key, decide if the statement is “True” or “False”. “True” (the ‘on’ position) favors the incumbent party. “False” (the ‘off’ position) favors the challenger.
3. View the Real-Time Results: As you flip the switches, the calculator automatically updates the tally of true and false keys.
4. Interpret the Prediction: The primary result will show “Incumbent Party Predicted to WIN” if five or fewer keys are false, and “Incumbent Party Predicted to LOSE” if six or more are false. The bar chart also visualizes this balance.

Understanding election dynamics is complex. Explore our guide to historical election results for more context.

Key Factors That Affect the 13 Keys

The turning of the keys is not random; it’s influenced by real-world events. Understanding these factors is crucial for accurately using the 13 keys to the white house calculator.

• The Economy: Keys 5 and 6 are directly tied to economic performance. A recession or slow growth during an election year is highly damaging to the incumbent party.
• Midterm Elections: Key 1 shows that midterm results are often a public referendum on the President’s first two years. Significant losses signal dissatisfaction.
• Social Stability: Widespread, sustained social unrest (Key 8) creates a perception of a loss of control, which reflects poorly on the incumbent administration.
• Major Policy Changes: Successfully passing significant legislation (Key 7), like the Affordable Care Act, can be a powerful argument for an incumbent’s effectiveness.
• Scandals: A major scandal (Key 9) that touches the president directly can erode public trust and turn a key against the White House party.
• Foreign Affairs: A major, embarrassing failure abroad (Key 10) can make an administration look weak, while a major success (Key 11) can make it look strong and competent.

Learn more about how presidents shape policy in our presidential powers overview.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. How accurate is the 13 Keys model?

Since its creation, Allan Lichtman has used the model to correctly predict the popular vote winner in nine of the last ten presidential elections from 1984 to 2020. Its only popular vote miss was in 2000, where it predicted Al Gore would win. Gore did win the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College.

2. Does the model predict the Electoral College or the popular vote?

The model is designed to predict the national popular vote winner, not the state-by-state Electoral College results. In most elections, the popular vote winner also wins the Electoral College, but as seen in 2000 and 2016, this is not always the case.

3. What qualifies as a “major” policy change or a “major” foreign policy failure/success?

This is where subjective analysis is required. A “major” event is one with broad, long-lasting national impact. For example, the passage of the Affordable Care Act was a major policy change. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was widely seen as a major foreign policy failure.

4. How is “charisma” defined for Keys 12 and 13?

Charisma in this model refers to a candidate who is a once-in-a-generation, inspirational figure with broad appeal (like Franklin D. Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan), not just a good speaker. It is a high bar, and these keys are rarely turned true.

5. Can the keys change over time?

Yes. The status of several keys, particularly those related to the economy, social unrest, and foreign affairs, can change in the months leading up to an election. A final prediction should be made close to Election Day.

6. Why don’t polls factor into the model?

Lichtman argues that polls are merely snapshots in time and not reliable predictors of future behavior. He believes they capture the “ephemeral” aspects of a campaign, whereas the keys measure the fundamental performance of the incumbent party, which is what truly matters to voters.

7. What is the most important key?

No single key is more important than another. The model’s predictive power comes from the total number of false keys. A loss is predicted when at least six unfavorable conditions accumulate, regardless of which specific six they are.

8. Where did the 13 Keys model come from?

Allan Lichtman, an American historian, co-developed the model in 1981 with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. They adapted methods used for earthquake prediction, theorizing that a stable political environment leads to re-election, while an unstable one (an “earthquake”) leads to a change in power.

For more on voting systems, check out our article on electoral reform debates.